'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and domestic macroeconomic data announcements would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for Gandhi Jayanti. "Looking ahead, it will be interesting to monitor Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and their flow into India.
The recent sell-off in IT stocks such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has resulted in a sharp decline in the IT sector weighting in the Nifty50 index. The sector's weighting in the index has slipped to a five-year low of 12.2 per cent, down from the 17.7 per cent at the end of March 2022. The top IT companies - TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra - accounted for 13.6 per cent of the index at the end of March this year.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Indian passenger vehicles market registered record wholesales of 43 lakh units in 2024, with companies like market leader Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, and Kia posting their best-ever annual domestic sales. The continued growth of SUVs, along with rural markets playing a key role in driving up car sales, helped the industry better the previous best of nearly 41.1 lakh units posted in 2023.
The spike at private sector lenders like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank follows a push to grab market share from India's dominant state banks.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
Accenture's Q1 FY22 results have sent a wave of cheer among analysts, as the company raised its revenue guidance and said it expects double-digit growth in outsourcing, up from single digit to low double-digit growth expected earlier. Accenture's financial year ends on August 31. The company raised its revenue outlook for FY22 to 19-22 per cent in local currency, up from 12-15 per cent earlier.
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed a significant loss of growth momentum in May due to the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis and its detrimental impact on demand, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), fell to 50.8 in May, down from 55.5 in April, as companies observed the slowest rises in new work and output in ten months amid intensification of the COVID-19 crisis. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Moody's, which cut its FY14 growth estimate to 4.5 per cent recently, said economic growth will be lowest in a decade.
Fundraising momentum is expected to accelerate further in the New Year, potentially surpassing 2024's record figures
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Automobile retail sales in India rose 13 per cent year on year in February with all the segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, witnessing robust offtake, dealers' body FADA said on Thursday. Overall retail sales stood at 20,29,541 units last month as compared to 17,94,866 units in the year-ago period. Passenger vehicle sales grew 12 per cent to 3,30,107 units last month as against 2,93,803 units in February 2023.
The engineering and construction (E&C) sector delivered an excellent performance in the last two financial years (FY2021-22 or FY22 and FY23's nine-months) and there's reason to believe that FY24 will also see outperformance. The sector has emerged from the pandemic with stronger balance sheets and more rational cost structures. It has a big order book and it should see new order flows accelerate in FY24.
Infosys Ltd on Thursday reported a 4.7 per cent rise in the September quarter net profit and raised revenue guidance after broadbased growth. Net profit of Rs 6,506 crore in July-September was up 4.7 per cent when compared to Rs 6,212 crore earnings in the same period last year. It was 2.2 per cent higher quarter-on-year, according to a company statement.
With an expected earnings growth of 15 per cent, benchmark index Nifty 50 may hit 24,500 level by December 2024 and move further to surpass the level of 26,500 by December 2025, Emkay Investment Managers said on Tuesday. The 50-share Nifty settled at 22,888.15 on Tuesday. In the previous day, it hit a new lifetime peak of 23,110.80.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Worried by a spike in Chinese imports, the Indian Steel Association (ISA) plans to take up the matter with the government and seek measures to fix "trade distortions". Alok Sahay, secretary general of the group that represents the country's steel producers, said systemic changes were needed. "In order to take any trade measure, it takes a minimum of 15 months' time, due to prevalence of lesser duty rule in India, making India an easy target. "We are going to write to the government on this," he said.
The Indian cement industry is hopeful of greener pastures after a long period of stress led by pricing pressures and other factors. The second half of FY25 is expected to bring respite due to price hikes, cost benefits and higher volumes, said analysts. The optimistic momentum also makes cement stocks attractive, analysts added, advising to buy dips following a period of bearish sentiment in these stocks.
India slips to second place on hiring outlook
Crisil Ratings on Wednesday projected India's GDP growth at 6.8 per cent in the next fiscal and said the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031 with the economy doubling to $7 trillion. In its India Outlook report, Crisil said the Indian economy will take support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers and can retain -- perhaps even improve -- its growth prospects to become the third largest economy by 2031. "After a better-than-expected 7.6 per cent this fiscal, India's real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8 per cent in fiscal 2025," said the Crisil India Outlook report.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
The Street will thus keep an eye on the operating profit margins over the next couple of quarters.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 10 per cent on-year jump in July driven by new model launches and enhanced discounts, industry body FADA said on Monday. Total passenger vehicle retail sales rose to 3,20,129 units in July, as compared to 2,90,564 units in July 2023. "Dealers reported benefits from good product availability, attractive schemes, and a wider range of products," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) vice president C S Vigneshwar said in a statement.
With the last quarter of 2023-24 (FY24) expected to have been soft owing to lower discretionary spend and macro uncertainty, many are hoping FY25 will be a year of recovery for the information-technology (IT) industry. The fourth quarter, January-March, is considered soft, and will continue to see the headwinds the sector has been facing. And the sector has entered the new financial year on a weak footing. Analysts are expecting Tier-I firms to report sequential growth of -1 per cent to 1.5 per cent and midcap players' growth may range between 0.7 per cent and 4 per cent.
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across sectors have expressed intentions to expand capacities, expecting the government's target to invest a record Rs 11.11 trillion on infrastructure development will act as a catalyst for a jump in consumer demand. "With the government planning a capex of Rs 11.11 trillion, private sector investment will come in a big way. Companies will be preparing for it right from today," H M Bangur, chairman of Shree Cement, told Business Standard. For the past few years, the investment scene in India has been dominated by government capital expenditures; private investments in the manufacturing sector have remained muted.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
Largecap, flexicap, and balanced advantage funds together recorded a net inflow of Rs 9,363 crore in August, representing a 70% increase from the previous month's total.
An article on 'State of the Economy' in the monthly Bulletin also said the improvement in the outlook for agriculture and the revival of rural spending have turned out to be the bright spots in the evolution of demand conditions. Consumer price inflation ticked up in June 2024 after three consecutive months of moderation as a broad flare-up in vegetable prices halted the overall disinflation that had been underway, it said.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday said it expects a moderately worse sector outlook for Indian banks for the next fiscal beginning April 1 based on muted expectations for new business and revenue generation, and deteriorating asset quality. Fitch believes that the disproportionate shock to India's informal economy and small businesses, coupled with high unemployment and declining private consumption, have yet to fully manifest on bank balance sheets. The rating agency said the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to pose challenges to Indian banks' improving financial performance once asset-quality risks manifest in the financial year ending March 2022.
There was an acceptable domestic performance in India but there continues to be concerns about the Europe business and that overshadows the local performance. The consolidated revenues for the Q2FY24 stood at Rs 55,682 crore with an operating profit of Rs 4,315 crore and an operating profit margin of 8 per cent.
'API prices are dragging down margins and impacting our competitive ability.'
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
'We are confident that over the next few years the government will strike a fine balance between populist measures and growth, and manage coalition partners well.'
